TagCPI

二师兄又值钱了,货币宽松的节奏或被扰动

原题目:二师兄又值钱了,货泉宽松的节拍或被扰动

每年春季都是猪肉花费的淡季,往年春节后的猪肉价钱一般城市有所回落,但本年3月份以来,肉价似乎解脱了传统惯性,呈现显明上涨态势。

市场缺猪,价钱拐点就开端呈现。作为影响CPI走势的主要身分,专家以为,假如猪肉价钱快速上涨,将对CPI形成较显明的拉动感化,固然要完整掣肘货泉政策转向的可能性极低,但或也会干扰到货泉政策宽松的节拍。

新一轮猪周期或将启动

数据显示,321日,全国“内三元生猪(注:生猪品种,即猪的母本是处所品种)”出栏均价到达15.05/公斤,创下本年以来价钱新高。而全国“外三元生猪(注:生猪品种,即猪的母本是外国品种)”出栏均价在320日就已经到达15.46/公斤,创本年以来价钱新高,环比上涨接近30%

有券商统计表现,当前全国“外三元生猪”价钱较2月底价钱上涨了接近18%,涨幅已接近以往每轮猪周期开启时的单月涨幅。

对于本轮猪价上涨的原因,国盛证券固收首席剖析师刘郁以为:“近期猪价在需求淡季快速上涨,必定水平上是受到库存年夜幅下行的影响。”

此中,华商储蓄商品买卖治理中间自38日至今,在不足3周的时光内已宣布三次中心储蓄冻肉通知。固然冻肉收储的感化更多表示为对生猪市场信念的提振,并不克不及扭转中持久的供需格式,但在生猪供应缺乏的情形下进行收储,也会刺激猪价的短期内的上涨。

“近期猪价上涨,简直受到一些短期身分影响,但从存栏角度来看,可能已经是新一轮猪周期启动的前奏。”刘郁剖析以为说,局部疫情导致了养殖者信念降落,生猪出栏加快,年前仔猪价钱已降至20.63/公斤,接近汗青低位程度。而近期仔猪价钱开端回升,较年前低点已上涨52%,反映当前产能出清已经较为彻底。“别的,能繁母猪存储量的降落,也导致了市场求过于供。”刘郁说。

总体数据也证实了上述剖析。依据农业部颁布的全国400个检测县生猪及能繁母猪存栏情形,20191-2月生猪存栏环比降幅均跨越5%,创20101月有同比数据以来最低;2月能繁母猪存栏量环比降幅到达5%,也创下2010年以来的最年夜降幅。

有不少养殖户也对时期财经表现,猪价将来上涨趋向,已经获得确立。

CPI高于3%的可能性不年夜

作为影响CPI走势的主要身分,本轮猪价上涨会对CPI造成多年夜的影响?

平易近生证券研讨研讨陈述流露,猪肉价钱占CPI同比增速的权重为2.45%,对CPI波动率的进献约为13%。同时,猪价上涨,或导致部门需求转向鸡等其他禽肉,推进相干产物价钱上涨,这会间接加年夜CPI上涨压力。“猪价上涨将会导致CPI明显上行。”平易近生证券研讨员李锋流露,“若近期猪肉价钱快速上涨,将对CPI形成较显明的拉动感化。”

长江证券首席宏不雅剖析师赵伟以为,当前猪价已进进上涨通道,中性格景下,本年CPI或呈“倒V”型走势。CPI3月开端连续抬升进进上行通道,重回2%以上,年中或到达年内高点。“估计2019CPI中枢或抬升至2.5%摆布,高点或在2.9%摆布。”

华创证券首席宏不雅剖析师张瑜在其最新的研报中估计,“假现在年5-7月猪肉价钱再现单月上涨20%的情形,那么二季度CPI高点将触及3%。”

通胀回升,又会对将来货泉政策带来哪些影响呢?

刘郁以为,仅仅依附猪价推进,国际油价不呈现协同上涨,年内CPI高于3%的可能性并不年夜。“由单一身分推进的CPI回升并不代表广义通胀,并不足以激发货泉政策收紧。”

张瑜不雅点以为,当前全球经济增速放缓,经济动能缺掉,PPI大要率依然会在低区间彷徨。别的,国内“减税降费”政策若能较快落地,也将压低非食物项价钱的涨幅。她表现,“只要CPI高点不持久逗留在3%之上,CPI掣肘货泉政策转向的可能性就极低,但或会干扰货泉政策宽松的节拍。”

义务编纂:

【兴证宏观】猪价暴涨后,通胀怎么看?

原题目:【兴证宏不雅】猪价暴涨后,通胀怎么看?

内容摘要

Summary

我们在2019年中国宏不雅年度陈述《水长、致远》中曾提醒,通胀是2019年潜伏的不断定性,2019年的通胀平台会相对2018年更高,且3月之后对猪肉等身分须要亲密存眷。

春节后,猪肉价钱加快上涨,市场对这一潜伏风险的存眷度慢慢上升,我们结合兴业证券农业团队,论述我们对本轮猪价、通胀以及对货泉政策影响的剖析。

对本轮猪价周期的判定:本轮猪价高点将超上一轮。

o 本轮生猪价钱高点将在2020年,估计到达25元/千克;

o 2019年4个季度的生猪均价估计为12.5、15、17、18元/千克,年内最高点可能接近20元/千克。

对本年通胀的影响:2季度将上升至2.5%-3.0%区间。

o 中性假设下,2季度CPI增速将升至2.5%以上;

o 情景假设:1)情景2:猪价上涨更快。假如2季度生猪价钱升至17元,那么2季度CPI同比高点将到达3%;2)情景3:斟酌猪价上涨的扩散性。斟酌猪价上涨扩散较为激进的情形,2季度CPI同比增速高点会冲破3%。

复盘2010~2011年通胀引致货泉收紧的周期,至少有两年夜特点。

o 特点一:那时的通胀是需求引致的全局性通胀,而非构造性通胀;

o 特点二:那时货泉政策收紧,通胀并非独一身分,货泉政策同时斟酌的是克制信贷过快投放及共同地产政策转向。

当前还是构造性通胀,货泉政策周全收紧可能性小。

o 当前的通胀是构造性的,而非全局性;

o 本轮猪价上涨导致货泉政策周全收紧的可能性小。

风险提醒:油价超预期上涨。

正文

对本轮猪价周期的判定:

本轮猪价高点将超上一轮

春节后非洲猪瘟进级,猪肉供应快速下滑。春节后,我们看到全国范畴内的非洲猪瘟疫情加快发酵,全国各地域的猪肉出厂价从此前的显明分化到集体快速上涨。从供应角度来看,尽管此前农业部数据可能受到养猪补助撤消,叠加环保压力而导致农户少报存栏数影响,而有所掉真,但从当前情形与近几年的相对变更来看,能繁母猪存栏呈现加快往化。从兴业证券农业团队以为更为靠谱的猪饲料销量数据来看,2018年全年增速为负值,且降幅连续扩展,整体反应猪的供应简直已呈现快速压缩。

本轮生猪价钱高点将在2020年,估计到达25元/千克。依据兴业证券农业团队的判定,从当前供应往化的水平来看,相较2014~2015年那一轮周期要更为严重,估计本轮生猪价钱的高点将高于2016年的高点,将到达25元/千克。2019年4个季度的外三元生猪均价估计分辨为12.5、15、17、18元/千克,年内最高点可能接近20元/千克。这里斟酌到的重要是2季度凡是是淡季,生猪价钱上涨速度会有所放缓,而至年底会显明加快。但尽管如斯,我们需留意到的是,2018年春节后生猪价钱呈现超季候性的加快下跌,这使得从同比增速上来看,2季度压力最年夜。

对本年通胀的影响:

2季度将上升至2.5%-3.0%区间

中性假设下,2季度CPI增速将升至2.5%以上。斟酌到CPI猪肉分项环比滞后生猪价钱约1个月,弹性约为0.35,我们对本年的CPI增速进行测算。正如前面所述,因为2018年春节后猪肉价钱的超季候性下跌,造成低基数,这使得本年从3月开端至2季度末,CPI同比增速大要率将逐月上升,整体平台将显明上升,或将到达2.5%以上,甚至接近3%。

情景假设:在中性假设以外,市场也担忧一些极端情况的呈现。我们做两个情景假设:

o 情景2:猪价上涨更快。假设生猪价钱每个季度均价比拟中性假设进一步进步,2019年4季度生猪价钱分辨为12.5、17、19、20元。在此假设下,2季度CPI同比增速高点将到达3.0%。

o 情景3:斟酌猪价上涨的扩散性。汗青上来看猪肉价钱上涨会有必定的扩散性,尽管猪肉在CPI中的权重约3%,但其可能影响其他肉类、油类等。依据汗青数据的测算,猪肉对整体CPI的影响可能会在6%摆布,但这一测算因为无法把持其他变量,是以可能会有所高估。同时,也要留意到的是,2015年之后,猪肉价钱与牛、羊价钱之间的联动性显明削弱。在此情景下,斟酌猪肉的扩散性,2季度CPI同比增速高点会冲破3%。

复盘2010~2011年通胀周期

货泉政策压缩的根源

汗青上的“通胀→加息”,让市场有还顾之忧。通胀的读数自己并没有那么主要,焦点在于影响市场对货泉政策的预期。回想中国汗青上的高通胀,离当前较近的典范的两段时光是2008年、2010~2011年。在这两段时光都对应着央行的压缩周期,CPI同比增速到3%四周似乎是一个“心理地位”,而假如我们的估算准确,那么这将是2014年今后(除春节扰动以外)较为接近3%平台的一次。

复盘2010~2011年通胀周期,我们应当留意到,至少有两个特点:

o 特点一:那时的通胀是全局性通胀,而非构造性通胀。以2010-2011年周期为例,在那一轮周期固然也是猪周期,但我们看到栖身、走运、衣着、食粮价钱周全上涨。犹记适当时多个食粮价钱轮流上涨,“蒜你狠、姜你军、豆你玩”等被接踵炒作。

从表象上来看,那时的通胀上行有多方面身分的推进,包含:1)人力本钱上升。2010-2011年前后恰逢中国刘易斯拐点,对衣着、食粮等劳动密集型产物有本钱加成的推进感化;2)猪周期。生猪价钱从2010年9.7元的低点上涨至2011年的高点19.8元;3)输进性通胀。那时美国QE2的预期强烈,在此推进下,产业金属、原油价钱呈现周全上涨。

究其基本原因,2010-2011年的中国正值2009年四万亿的后期,企业盈利仍处于高位,需求茂盛(海外大批商品的上涨实质上和中国的投资需求茂盛也直接相干)。同时,国表里活动性富余,叠加人力本钱上升、猪周期等本钱加成的身分,起到了火上加油的感化。实质上来看,那时是一轮需求上升的周期,叠加活动性余裕的助推,是以才导致CPI、PPI的各个分项同步上涨。

o 特点二:克制通胀,并非那时货泉政策的单一目的函数。以2010-2011年周期为例,货泉政策的周全转向是从2010年1月8日上调央票刊行利率开端的,而那时CPI同比仅1.5%。

那时货泉政策周全转向压缩重要是基于两方面原因:1)克制信贷过快投放。2009年四万亿之后,银行信贷激动仍强烈,2010年1月前2周新增信贷超1.1万亿,央行开端对部门信贷投放过快的银行履行为期3个月的更高的存款预备金,并在1月8日、1月22日分辨两次上调3M、1Y央票刊行利率;2)共同房地产政策的转向。从2009年12月开端,为克制过热的房地产市场,当局已开端调控,包含2009年12月9日的国常会上决议将二手房营业税优惠政策到期结束,2010年1月10日决议晋升二套房贷款首付比例至40%。而货泉政策则是地产压缩政策的共同。

当前还是构造性通胀

货泉政策周全收紧可能性小

当前的通胀是构造性的,而非全局性。沿着前面的剖析,焦点题目在于厘清当前是构造性通胀仍是全局性通胀。

事实上,在对曩昔的通胀进行剖析时,我们会发明2012年前后,通胀的表示完整分歧。2012年之前,通胀重要是需求驱动的,因而表示为各个分项之间的相干性强,甚至良多没有直接高低游相干关系的价钱均在同步上涨(如食粮与PPI,见图表10),这都反应背后是需求的推进,如前面我们复盘的2010-2011年的通胀就是典范的例子。而2012年之后,通胀表示出很是显明的构造性,一个最为直接的表示是CPI与PPI的分化,CPI的各个分项的同步性也显明降落。假如以猪周期为例,2015-2016年也曾呈现猪价上涨,但其他分项均较弱(见图表12),这背后反应的是整体的需求层面依然偏弱,不足以推进全局通胀。

在当前的经济情况下,本轮通胀仍然更可能是构造性通胀。正如我们在2019年中国宏不雅经济年报《水长、致远》中所论述的,本年经济自己乏善可陈,金融前提改良。经济尾部风险降落,但在债务软束缚的布景下,债务融资的增加也将是有限的,是以需求层面虽有底,但仍有下行压力。在这种情况下,呈现全局性通胀的概率较小。

是以,猪价上涨导致货泉政策周全收紧的可能性小。在构造性通胀的布景下,尽管2季度CPI同比增速有可能到达3%四周,但引致货泉政策周全收紧的可能性小。假如定量来看,从2006年之后几轮货泉政策收紧(假如我们暂且将2017年头、2018年头央行调升MLF/SLF利率也看作是收紧)都对应着GDP平减指数在3%以上。而在中性格景下,本年GDP平减指数仍将保持在3%以下。是以,整体来看,货泉政策周全收紧的可能性小。更可能的是,央行经由过程前瞻指引淡化猪肉的影响,或夸大其构造性、姑且性特点。

风险提醒:油价超预期上涨。

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宏不雅部门来自证券研讨陈述:《猪价暴涨后,通胀怎么看?》

对外宣布时光:2019年3月22日

段超 执业证书编号:SAC S0190516070004

王连庆 执业证书编号:SAC S0190512090001

陈娇(农业)执业证书编号:SAC S0190513070011

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义务编纂:

贵金属 | 从单一指标判断金价走势

原题目:贵金属 | 从单一指标判定金价走势

本文国信证券《汇率、利率与活动性研讨系列之三:是什么驱动了金价?》,作者:董德志如需转载,请接洽原作者。更多出色内容,请下载扑克财经App(iOS及安卓版本均可下载)。

自20 世纪70 年月与美元脱钩以来,黄金一共阅历了五轮牛市和五轮熊市。

尽管黄金一向以来被以为具有抗通胀的属性,汗青上金价变更与通胀的正相干性仅在表现两个时代(1972-1980年和2007-2011年),而其他时代则并不明显。鉴于通胀在这两个时代的波动显明加年夜(这里我们用G7国度的CPI代表反应通胀,由于在2010年以前,世界的黄金需求重要起源于G7国度),是以通胀对金价的驱动是有前提的,即只有当通胀年夜幅波动时,才可以对金价发生主导性的影响。

假如用剔除了通胀影响的美国10 年期国债利率代表持久现实利率,则由图8 和图9 所示,在上述两个金价变更与通胀显明正相干时代,金价与该持久现实利率在走势上刚好具有显明的负相干性。不仅如斯,即便从1971 年至2010 年之前的汗青时代来看,金价变更与持久现实利率在走势上的负相干性也较为显明。

是以从汗青来看,我们以为假如仅依据单一指标来判定汗青上金价的走势,则持久现实利率可谓是首屈一指。斟酌到持久现实利率的高下反应了持有黄金的机遇本钱,其从投资决议计划的角度无疑对于金价走势的驱动具有更好的说明力。

这里须要夸大的是,即便从上述汗青上通胀的高波动时代来看,持久现实利率对于金价的驱动与通胀对金价的主导影响也并不抵触。这是由于从界说来看:持久现实利率=持久名义利率-持久通胀预期。由此可见,持久现实利率的高下一方面受到持久名义利率,另一方面则受到持久通胀预期的影响。是以在通胀的高波动时代,持久现实利率的变更往往被持久通胀预期的年夜幅变更所摆布,从而使得通胀对金价的走势发生主导性的影响。

持久现实利率对金价走势的驱动不仅表现在其相对程度上(投资收益),也表现在其尽对程度上。如图10 所示,汗青上每当美国持久现实利率步进负区间, 金价总会迎来一轮反弹。

义务编纂:

洪灝:市场确认了一个重要的拐点(Market Inflection Point is Confirmed)

原题目:洪灝:市场确认了一个主要的拐点(Market Inflection Point is Confirmed)

概要

除了PPI,宏不雅变量的波动性几乎全体消散。据我们察看,在全球央行启动货泉宽松政策之后,自约2010至2011年以来,产业增添值、CPI、GDP、盈利增加和市场波动性不竭下降。工人工资增加滞后于劳动出产率进步直接导致了收进分派不均,以及由此发生的花费不足。相对于劳工不克不及获得合意工资而引起的花费不足,劳动出产率敏捷进步而导致的供应多余压制了价钱波动。

跟着中国储蓄和投资的习惯转变,中国人储蓄、投资少了,花费进级。而随之而来的则是市场价钱的稳固。跟着货泉供给放缓和信誉扩大受制于往杠杆的目的,我们须要一个新的活动性起源,牛市才干更进一步,终极向泡沫化迈进。

CPI、PPI之间波动的不合错误称性暗示着企业缺少订价才能;估值变更比盈利才能更能决议股票的回报 – 这是在中国股票市场赚钱的焦点。CPI和PPI之差是公司毛利率的替换指标。CPI的波动性比PPI更低意味着公司订价才能的缺掉。是以,盈利才能在决议股票回报时只是一个次要的身分。我们的剖析也印证了这一料想。然而,跟着CPI和PPI之差快速上升,一如当下,企业盈利仍将改良。这对于股票也不掉是一个边际意义上的利好。

货泉政策作为股票估值的驱动力,是决议股票回报最主要的身分。这是在中国股票挣钱的焦点。是以,市场会变得更投契于政策变更,而非像市场共鸣等待的那样变得更理性。“基础面”牛难期,更多的是“情感牛”、“水牛”或“融资杠杆牛”。在货泉政策决议了一切的时辰,市场择时比选股更主要,市场愈趋指数化。然而,估值既然承蒙央行所赐,也要铭刻如许的行情或来得快,往得也快。这些察看都与市场共鸣相悖,并很是好地说明了当下“梭哈”的行情。

美国类现金货泉增速接近汗青低点,并对应中国股市汗青上主要的拐点;市场流动性的增量未来自于外国资金和融资买卖,而不像以前那样来自货泉或信贷的扩大。跟着宏不雅构造的变更,中国的货泉供给不太可能像2009年那样增加。信贷受制于往杠杆的目的,也不太可能像2015年那样快速扩大。假如市场要持续年夜幅攀升,新的活动性身分长短常需要的。融资买卖的占比已经很是接近2015年股市泡沫幻灭之后12%的经验值上限。监管对于场外配资的立场已经基础明白,但海外杠杆资金经由过程陆股通买进A股很难监管。然而,这些资金也已经买爆了良多陆股通标的。监管会商进步上限须要时光。

美国类现金货泉供给的增加速度接近汗青低点。这个现象往往意味着美国经济的增加速度已经见顶,美联储不克不及再独行其是持续收紧货泉政策,并同时对应着中国股市汗青上历次的主要拐点。这与我们在2019年瞻望陈述中对2,450点位的阐述一致。跟着中国本钱市场的进一步开放,美国新增的活动性仍然可以流进中国市场。在上证止步于3000点摆布之际,A50和500以及创业板之间的洪灝:市场确认了一个主要的拐点轮动暗示着短期里买卖层面的活动性已经接近上限。尽管市场筑底将一波三折,我们持续以为持久的趋向重于短期的波动。

这是我们20190321的陈述《洪灝:市场确认了一个主要的拐点》的英文原版。感激浏览。

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Macro volatility disappearing across the board, exceptPPI.We observed that VAI, CPI, GDP, earnings growth and market volatility have been declining across the board since circa 2010-11, after global monetary easing. Wage growth lagging behind productivity gain induces social inequity in income and thus under-consumption. Oversupply from productivity gain relative to under-consumption from inadequate labor compensation has suppressed price volatility.

As China’s habit of saving and investment changes, it saves and invests less while consuming more. Price stability ensues. As money supply growth slows and credit expansion is confined by the mantra of deleveraging, a new source of liquidity is necessary for the raging bull to charge ahead – eventually into a bubble.

Asymmetry in CPI and PPI volatility suggests a lack of corporate pricing power; valuation trumps earning power in determining stock returns – the key to profit in Chinese stocks. The gap between CPI and PPI is a proxy of corporate profitability. CPI being less volatile than PPI suggests corporates lack pricing power. As such, earning power is a secondary factor in stock returns, as confirmed by our analysis. That said, as the gap between CPI and PPI expands, as it is now, profitability improves and helps stock performance.

Monetary policy, a driver of changes in valuation multiple, is the most important in explaining stock returns. As such, the market will become more speculative on policies, not less. There is no bull market based on fundamentals, but, instead, on sentiment, liquidity and leverage. When monetary policy rules, market timing pays more than stock picking. But what is given by the central bank can also be easily taken away. These observations are counter-intuitive.

US MZM growth close to historical lows, and tends to correspond to important inflection points in Chinese stocks. Additional market liquidity comes from foreign buying and margin trading, unlikely from money and credit growth as it used to. With structural macro changes, China’s money supply growth is unlikely to accelerate significantly as it did in 2009. Credit growth, confined by the mantra of deleverage, is unlikely to expand as it did in 2015. Other liquidity ingredients are necessary to lift the market substantially higher.

Percentage of total turnover in margin trades is approaching its limit of 12% since the 2015 burst. Regulators’ attitude towards OTC margin is clear, though leveraged funds from overseas via the Connect Scheme are harder to regulate. That said, buying by these funds is also hitting the foreign trading limit in the near term.

Growth in US’ money of zero maturity (MZM) is slowing to its historical lows, suggesting peaked US growth, and corresponding to inflection points in the A shares. This is consistent with our discussion regarding the importance of 2,450 in the Shanghai Composite in our 2019 outlook report “Turning a Corner”. With China opening further, US liquidity will come. The A50 vs. CSI500/ChiNext rotation while SHCOMP pauses suggests trading liquidity is hitting its near-term limit. Market bottoming will not be smooth sailing, but we continue to believe long-term upward trend trumps short-term moves.

How to Make Money in Chinese Stocks?

At a recent investment conference hosted by a state news agency, the atmosphere was vivid. “Will the central bank cut RRR again?” the audience pressed. “Will it cut interest rate soon?” The questions marooned me at the live Q&A session, while other speakers on the more important legal and regulatory topics were sidelined. Outside the windowpane, the wind was whispering spring.

To us, it is a little odd to encounter such questions. Our research has shown that the hoi polloi has not benefited much from monetary easing, as the access to easy credits has been reserved for the privileged few (, 20161114, and , 20171114). As global central banks continue to ease as if it is a panacea, the asset bubbles around the world have shown few signs of deflating. Remember that previous deflationary busts in the 1920s and Japan’s lost decades since the 1990s were all preceded by financial bubbles.

Being the last beneficiary of monetary easing, and the first in line as the casualty of bubbles, the “proletariat” should have other concerns. But the bull market has arrived, and the fear of missing out on the rally is stronger than that of being left holding the bag.

The Disappearing Macro Volatility

Macro volatility declines across the board, except PPI. To answer the questions from the audience, we investigated numerous macro variables. During the process, one prominent phenomenon is palpable across the board – the volatility in many macro variables has collapsed circa 2010-11, right after QE – except PPI. We are puzzled by its cause, and the repercussions.

We can show such collapse in volatility across various macro variables, including GDP growth, EPS growth, CPI, VAI and market volatility, amongst many others. (For illustration purpose, Figure 1shows only the volatility of PPI, CPI and VAI).

Figure 1: Macro volatility has collapsed since ~2010/11 across variables, except PPI

The “Fed Put” is based on declining macro volatility. In the past decade, the trade to short volatility has been in vogue, largely based on the “Fed Put” – it will bail out the market every time it runs into trouble. As persistent liquidity supply suppresses market volatility, it is lucrative to bet on declining volatility – all the way until the “vol crash” in January 2018, when cumulative gains of several hundred percent over the years by some specialty short-vol funds returned to zero.

Social Inequality Suppresses Price Volatility

Labor wage growth lags productivity gains, suppressing price volatility. Besides central bank easing suppressing market volatility, we believe that other macroeconomic reasons are behind the disappearing macro volatility. In our series of special reports on social inequality and secular disinflation, we posited that the disinflation experienced by the global economy since early 1980s is a reflection of the exploitation of “surplus value” produced by the working class.

This process is evidenced by labor productivity gain consistently outpacing wage growth for the past three decades, concurring with falling inflation and long bond yields. (Figure 2; for the lack of better expressions, we have borrowed some terms from Karl Marx, one of the seminal figures on labor economics; please refer to our special report “A Price Revolution” on 20161114).

Figure 2: Productivity gains outpaced wage growth, creating social inequity/suppressing inflation

Social inequity suppresses price volatility. In a follow-up report, we further posited that such inequality in sharing productivity gains is indeed the cause of persistent disinflation (“Decoding Disinflation: Principal Contradiction, Social Progress and Market Fragility”, 20171114). This is simply because the masses are inadequately compensated and thus under consume, while the consumption by the rich few cannot make up for the loss in consumption by the masses. The consequent oversupply by productivity gains relative to the under-consumption by inadequate wage growth exerts downward pressure on consumer prices.

Our theory is empirically consistent with various social developments in the past three decades. Price stability masks the ills of social inequity, and brews populism. China has undergone tremendous social transformation since its “Reform and Open” in 1978. As “a few get rich first”, the chasm between different social classes widens. And the income disparity in China is probably one of the most glaring in the world – before official statistics are no longer published. Not surprisingly, consumer price volatility has also been disappearing in China.

Changes in China’s Savings and Investment

The above discussions probably explain in part why price volatility declines across the globe. But, specifically for China, there are other macro forces at work.

China’s macro savings rate falls, money supply growth and FAI slow. We note that, around 2010-11, Chinese habit of saving and investment changed significantly. The accumulation of current account surplus slowed sharply after 2009. It is a reflection of decelerating macro savings rate, and of lesser ability to attract foreign savings. As savings equal investment, fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed in tandem. An economic structure tilted more towards consumption should be less volatile and experience more price stability. Meanwhile, broad money supply growth (M2) also fell, corresponding to the slowing accumulation of positions for FX purchase (Figure 3).

Figure 3: China’s habit of saving and investment changed around 2010/11

The US saves more and contributes less to China’s money growth. The Chinese and the US economies used to complement each other very closely. China produces, America consumes. As such, the US current account deficit, the result of excess US consumption, used to be an important source of liquidity to China’s monetary system. As the US households tried to deleverage after 2008, the US current account deficit as a percentage of US GDP has in fact improved substantially. China’s falling current account surplus as a percentage of GDP is in part an image of improving US current account balance. And hence China’s falling money supply growth.

This is an important observation for asset pricing. Broad money supply growth used to be essential for the performance of Chinese stocks. Without it, we would not have seen the big recovery rally after the “four-trillion-yuan” stimulus, and the lackluster returns in the ensuing years as money growth fell.

China’s credit expansion no longer compensates slowing money growth. As money growth decelerates, other liquidity ingredients are necessary to induce a rally in Chinese shares. Here is where domestic credit growth comes in – the instigator of the stock market bubble in 2015. At the inception of the bubble, credits extended for the purpose of reconstructing shanty downs found their ways into the stock market. Data shows that, around 2015, domestic credit growth substantially outpaced money supply growth. But as credit growth was reined in, and converged with the growth in money supply, the stock market bubble burst (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Credit growth was the instigator of the 2015 bubble

In today’s milieu of decelerating economic growth, money supply growth stays low, and credit expansion is constrained by the mantra of deleveraging. A new ingredient is required to sustain the current bull market.

How to Make Money in A Shares?

A lack of corporate pricing power. In the previous sections, we have discussed how macro volatility has collapsed across the board, except PPI. It is plausible that PPI is less affected by monetary policy choices, as these choices should have no influence over the vagaries of nature and hence crop harvests, or mining discoveries and hence the production costs of industrial commodities.

If we use the gap between CPI and PPI as a proxy for corporate margin, we will be immediately confronted by a dilemma. The volatility in CPI is depressed by social inequality and the change in China’s savings and investment habits, but the volatility in PPI is still ruled by nature, and remains fickle. Suddenly, a picture of diminishing corporate pricing power emerges, as control over upstream costs lags behind the control over downstream prices.

Margin likely to rise further. One logical inference from this observation is that, if CPI rises faster than PPI, or corporate margin expands – as it is now, then the company’s stock should do well (Figure 5). And vice versa. In Figure 5, we show a close correlation between the gap of CPI vs. PPI, i.e. margin, and that of M2 vs. M1, i.e. money multiplier. As monetary conditions loosen, as they do now, corporates’ operating environment should improve. Consequently, margins tend to expand.

Figure 5: Rising money multiplier suggests that profit margin should expand further

Valuation explains the bulk of stock return; earnings ability a secondary concern. A second logical inference from this observation is that, given corporates have less pricing power in an environment with collapsing macro volatility, earnings will matter less in pricing those corresponding stocks. And for the observed stock market gyrations, especially as they are now, other factors determining stock returns must be at work.

We then decompose stock returns into two components: earnings growth and valuation expansion. As discussed above, earnings growth should contribute less to stock returns, as corporate pricing power is diminishing in the new macro environment. Therefore, valuation multiple, the remaining candidate, should be the most important source of stock returns.

Indeed, we can see that earnings growth has accounted for less and less of stock return since 2006, while the changes in valuation multiple have been increasingly driving the returns (Figure 6). Such effect was most palpable during the rally in 2009 and the bubble in 2015, when liquidity was abundant but fundamentals were down the drain. A shares can rally without fundamentals for a while, until valuation strays too far from them, and the rally collapses by its own weight.

Figure 6: Changes in valuation explain the bulk of return; earnings growth is secondary

Investment Implications

All alpha is beta.We have discussed that corporate margins are less of a choice than a product of macroeconomics, and that stock returns are more influenced by valuation multiple expansion than by earnings growth. As such, the bulk of stock return is actually systemically driven by monetary policy. Almost all alpha is beta.

In such an environment, we should observe the following:

(1) The market universe will be increasingly dominated by index funds.Or the market will gradually be indexation-ized, as much of the return is driven by the systemic valuation multiple expansion rather than idiosyncratic earnings power. In fact, the US market now has more listed ETFs than stocks. China’s index funds are rising.

(2) The central bank is the most important determinant of stock returns. The investment process hence will become more speculative – not less. It explains why the world is more obsessed with the policy choices of the central banks. And now the questions that we were confronted at the conference mentioned at the opening of this report are entirely pertinent.

(3) As the ability to take on systemic risks is rewarded, stock picking skills will be increasingly irrelevant.Eventually, the ability to generate return depends on whether one’s balance sheet is sizable enough to absorb systemic risks when they are due. Or else simply succumb to redemption pressure.

(4) There is no “fundamental” bull.Only “sentiment” bull, “leverage” bull or “liquidity” bull. Market prices can stray from fundamentals for some time, as long as liquidity/credit conditions are supportive. Our experiences during the 2015 bubble have educated us well. Keynes’ saying that the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent rings even more true. The “patient bull” that many are hoping for is not supported by data evidence.

Market Outlook

Where else will liquidity come from? We have discussed the necessary ingredients for a raging bull market, also known as bubble. One of these ingredients includes valuation multiple expansion induced by loosening liquidity conditions. Earnings growth alone will not be sufficient. As the market surges and trading volume explodes back to above the one trillion-yuan mark, there are many excited by the prospects of 2015 once more. It pays to investigate where liquidity will come from.

Unlikely from savings. It is unlikely that China’s current account surplus versus GDP, or the country’s macro savings rate, will recover to pre-2009 highs. The way that the PBoC creates money supply has changed. And the new trade relationship after China’s talks with the US suggests further shrinkage in current account surplus as a percentage of GDP, and hence in the macro savings rate.

Unlikely from credit growth. Domestic credit can expand. Yet, after the explosive surge of bank lending in January, loan growth subsided in February. And it was well below expectations. Monetary statistics in March will elaborate the central bank’s attitude towards credit re-expansion. Our best guess is that easing will remain restrainedly supportive. The rhetoric from the PBoC also hints at such inclination.

Foreign buying and domestic margin trading. The remaining channels for new liquidity for the A shares will be foreign buying and domestic margin trading. Yet, as we have discussed in detail in our previous report “Who’s Buying? Who’s Next” (20190311), margin trading turnover as a percentage of total market turnover is approaching its 12% upper limit observed since the 2015 bubble burst. Recently, regulators have forbidden the participation of OTC margin trading via brokers. Given the lessons from 2015, margin trading are unlikely to escape the scrutiny from the regulators.

That said, offshore leverage trading is buying A shares via the Connect Scheme, and is difficult to regulate. These leveraged monies have been buying some stocks all the way to their foreign trading limits. The fact that regulators are considering relaxing these limits is a good sign, although it will take time.

Global index inclusion. This year marks the further opening of China’s capital market. The Foreign Investment Act has been passed. And MSCI and FTSE will raise the weight of A shares further in their global indices, obliging foreign funds to increase allocation towards A shares. Although initially estimated at a few hundred billion yuan in size, these funds will increasingly become an important part of China’s capital market.

Figure 7: US MZM is unlikely to grow much slower, as the US economic growth peaks out; Fed will pause

Figure 8: Low points in US MZM growth coincide with important inflection points in A shares

US MZM growth approaching historical lows that used to correspond to important inflection points in A shares; the Fed should pause. Meanwhile, the supply growth of US’ money of zero maturity (MZM) has decelerated to a low level comparable to its historical lows. These historical lows tend to correspond to peaking economic growth, as well as important inflection points in the Chinese stock market. This observation is consistent with our discussions regarding the importance of 2,450 in our 2019 outlook report “Turning a Corner”(20181119). That is, given the prospects of slowing US growth going into 2019, it is unlikely that the Fed will continue its tightening, unless inflation is too high to bear. Easing US liquidity condition has been conducive to important turning points in the Chinese stock market in the past (Figure 7and Figure 8). This time it should not be any different.

Long-term upward trend trumps short-term moves.For now, as foreign buying has hit the trading limit, and regulators have revealed their attitude towards margin trading, the A shares are pausing. The fact that the rotation between large and small caps, and the changing market leadership between A50 and ChiNext as the Shanghai Composite hovers around 3,000 suggest that market liquidity is approaching its near-term limits. But the Fed pausing tends to augur well for the A shares. While volatility will likely persist in the near term, for us, the long-term trend continues to trump short-term moves.

交銀國際 洪灝,CFA

2019-03-22

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分析师:欧元有关键趋势线“撑腰” 技术面全面看涨

原题目:剖析师:欧元有要害趋向线“撑腰” 技巧面周全看涨

FX168财经报社(喷鼻港)讯周五(3月15日)亚市午后,欧元/美元位于1.1320四周程度彷徨。上一买卖日美元指数自96.37低点一路温顺反弹,持续4个买卖日收跌后初次上涨。

英国议会议员最新投票支撑推迟脱欧,但欧盟方面表现英国须要证实本身请求延期的来由。新闻传出后,英镑/美元短线一度拉升,但随后再度下挫。

英镑/美元的回撤拖累欧元/美元下跌,汇价在4个买卖日上涨后初次收跌。

本买卖日接下来重点存眷欧元区2月CPI终值和美国3月密歇根年夜学花费者信念指数初值数据。

对于欧元/美元接下来走势远景,日内FXStreet剖析师Omkar Godbole最新撰文,作出扼要技巧剖析和猜测。其不雅点重要内容如下:

当前欧元/美元交投于1.1320四周,盘中上涨0.15%,临时守住1.1300支持位,并临时守住衔接3月7日和3月11日低点的上行趋向线支持位。

与此同时,欧元/美元守住上行趋向线,且50和200小时均线走出看涨交叉,唆使汇价接下来阻力最小的路径是上行。且相对强弱指标(RSI)也于50上方唆使看涨。

也就是说,日图上看,假如欧元/美元反弹站上1.1339(3月13日高点),则其远景将转为看涨。

而下行方面,假如欧元/美元跌破1小时图上的上行趋向线支持位,则将睁开深度回撤至1.1276,该水位为汇价自1.1176至1.1339涨势的38.2%斐波那契回撤位。

(欧元/美元1小时图 起源:FXStreet、FX168财经网)

趋向:谨严看涨

支持位:

1.1284

1.1265

1.1236

阻力位:

1.1333

1.1362

1.1381

北京时光12:12,欧元/美元报1.1316/19。

校订:TIER

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2月份青岛CPI环比上涨1.6% 食品烟酒类涨幅居首

原题目:2月份青岛CPI环比上涨1.6% 食物烟酒类涨幅居首

2019年2月份,受节日身分影响,青岛市居平易近花费价钱(CPI)环比上涨1.6%,涨幅比上月扩展0.5个百分点。本月CPI同比上涨1.9%,涨幅比上月回落0.2个百分点。此中,食物和非食物价钱分辨上涨3.8%和1.4%,花费品和办事价钱均上涨1.9%。1-2月累计上涨2.0%。

八年夜类环比“六升二降”

2月份,CPI八年夜类中,食物烟酒类环比上涨3.8%,涨幅居首,拉动CPI总程度上升约1.15个百分点,是影响本月CPI上涨的重要身分;教导文化和娱乐类、交通和通讯类、其他用品和办事类、栖身类、生涯用品及办事类分辨上涨3.3%、0.6%、0.6%、0.1%、0.1%;衣着类和医疗保健类分辨降落0.5%和0.2%。

八年夜类同比“七涨一跌”

2月份,CPI八年夜类中,食物烟酒类价钱同比上涨3.0%,拉动总指数上升约0.93个百分点,是影响本月CPI上涨的重要身分;教导文化和娱乐类上涨6.2%,涨幅最年夜;医疗保健类、其他用品和办事类、衣着类、生涯用品及办事类、栖身类分辨上涨3.3%、3.2%、1.4%、1.4%、0.2%;仅交通和通讯类降落2.9%。

食物和旅游是CPI环比走高的两年夜身分

春节花费需求茂盛拉动食物价钱快速上涨。春节前是传统花费旺季,食物花费市场尤为活泼,供需两旺,价钱水涨船高。2月份,食物价钱环比上涨5.4%,拉动CPI总程度上升约1.11个百分点。特殊是在健康、品德花费不雅念的引领下,新颖蔬菜、优质生果、养分水产物慢慢替换肉蛋类占据餐桌。需求的增添拉动价钱快速上涨。本月鲜菜、鲜瓜果、水产物三项共影响CPI总程度上升约1.14个百分点,对CPI的进献率达72.6%。

鲜菜价钱年夜幅上扬。2月份,鲜菜价钱环比上涨24.9%,拉动CPI总程度上升约0.76个百分点,是本月对CPI影响最年夜的基础分类。至此,鲜菜价钱已持续三个月环比涨幅跨越10%,前两个月环比分辨上涨16.1%和13.5%。一方面,春节花费需求茂盛而节后市场供给略显不足,导致鲜菜价钱居高不下;另一方面,季候身分也是主要原因。因为气象严寒,鲜菜莳植和运输本钱显明增添,产量会有必定水平的削减,供给相对严重,即便外埠菜能知足市场需求,但运输本钱增添。以上身分配合拉动鲜菜价钱连续上涨。与往年同期比拟,鲜菜价钱上涨4.4%。

鲜瓜果价钱居高不下,2月份,鲜瓜果价钱环比上涨6.5%,影响CPI总程度上升约0.16个百分点。从往年夏日开端鲜瓜果价钱呈现上涨苗头。往年8月至本年1月,环比分辨上涨5.6%、4.7%、4.1%、10.6%、11.3%和10.3%。本月价钱上涨的重要原因一是节前花费需求茂盛,苹果、梨、喷鼻蕉、橙子等传统生果受市场供求影响,价钱有所上涨;二是花费进级需求使砂糖桔、草莓、猕猴桃等生果成为主流,市场需求量年夜,拉动鲜瓜果价钱上涨;三是冬季西瓜等非应季生果市场供给量少,价钱上涨;此外,为知足居平易近节日需求,上市生果品德较好,整体价钱有所上调。与往年同期比拟,鲜瓜果价钱上涨19.8%。

水产物价钱有所上涨。冬季水产物捕捞、养殖、运输等本钱增添,加之春节花费需求茂盛,拉动价钱显明上涨。2月份,水产物价钱环比上涨7.3%,影响CPI总程度上升约0.22个百分点。此中,淡水鱼、海水鱼和虾蟹类环比分辨上涨4.3%、5.6%和13.1%。与往年同期比拟,水产物价钱上涨3.2%。

从其他重要食物价钱环比变更情形来看,2月份,猪肉价钱小幅上涨,粮油价钱略有降落,鸡蛋价钱降幅较年夜。

娱乐花费成沐日花费新亮点是CPI上涨的另一动力

物资需求获得充足知足后,人们开端寻求精力层面的花费,最显明的表现就是文化娱乐花费不竭增加,价钱也随之上涨。本月娱乐花费相干的观光社收费、片子票等价钱显明上涨。

观光社收费价钱年夜幅上涨。在沐日经济的带动下,旅游花费成为居平易近花费新热门,拉动观光社收费价钱走高。特殊是春节时代,外出游玩人数急剧增添,热点旅游路线价钱广泛上涨;其次,春运时代机票、住宿等用度年夜幅上涨,观光社本钱增添,推进其上调价钱。以上身分配合拉动2月份观光社收费环比上涨12.9%,影响CPI总程度上升约0.34个百分点,仅次于鲜菜,对CPI的进献率为21.7%。与往年同期比拟,观光社收费价钱上涨14.2%。

片子票价钱涨幅较年夜。春节时代居平易近不雅影需求较年夜,热点片子场次价钱均有所上调。2月份,片子票价钱环比上涨12.3%;同比上涨36.8%。同比涨幅较高是受新涨价身分和翘尾身分配合影响,此中翘尾身分影响更年夜。因为往年进进暑期档之后,片子市场的影片上映数目和质量较往常均有晋升,不雅影人数也随之增添,加之受国庆档不雅影热度影响,部门影院调剂了逐日黄金档的影票价钱,导致片子票价钱上涨,这些都对本年2月份发生翘尾影响。

产业花费品价钱略有上涨

2月份,青岛市产业花费品价钱环比微涨0.1%,同比上涨0.8%;1-2月累计上涨0.7%。

衣着类价钱环比小幅降落。2月份,冬装即将下市,优惠运动增多,拉动衣着类价钱环比降落0.5%。此中,男士服装降落0.7%,密斯服装降落0.8%,儿童服装和鞋类均与上月持平。与往年同期比拟,衣着类价钱上涨1.4%。

交通东西价钱环比略降。春节后是发卖淡季,厂家为保销量加年夜优惠力度,小型汽车价钱有所下调,拉动交通东西价钱环比降落0.8%。与往年同期比拟,交通东西价钱降落5.8%。

汽、柴油价钱上涨。2月份,受国内制品油价钱调剂影响,汽、柴油价钱环比分辨上涨3.7%和4.0%。与往年同期比拟,汽、柴油价钱分辨降落2.8%和3.0%。

中成药价钱有所上涨。受本钱增添及供需关系影响,厂家上调价钱,引起部门药品价钱上涨。2月份,中成药价钱环比上涨1.6%,同比上涨15.2%。

办事项目价钱有所上涨

2月份,受节日身分影响,青岛市办事项目价钱环比上涨1.1%,同比上涨1.9%;1-2月累计上涨1.7%。

飞机票价钱有所上涨。春运时代返乡过节和外出旅游人数急剧增添,各航路机票价钱均有所上调。节后出行岑岭曩昔后,机票价钱敏捷下跌。综合全月飞机票价钱环比仍上涨3.1%,与往年同期比拟上涨6.4%。

部门办事价钱上涨显明。春节前城市务工职员集中返乡,部门办事价钱上涨显明。2月份,家庭办事价钱环比上涨2.2%,此中家政办事价钱上涨3.4%;美容美发沐浴价钱环比上涨4.4%;车辆补缀与颐养价钱环比上涨6.2%。

政策身分影响医疗办事价钱有所降落。依据青岛市物价局、青岛市财务局、青岛市人力资本和社会保障局、青岛市卫生和打算生养委员会《关于修订和增添部门医疗办事项目价钱的通知》(青价费〔2018〕37号)文件,2019年2月1日起,青岛市三甲病院部门护理类项目价钱下调,拉动医疗办事价钱有所降落。2月份,医疗办事价钱环比降落0.7%,同比也降落0.7%。

义务编纂:

A股牛市的信号来了?2月份货币和通胀双双下跌,引发警示信号!

原题目:A股牛市的旌旗灯号来了?2月份货泉和通胀双双下跌,激发警示旌旗灯号!

股市:一个好新闻+坏新闻!

这几天,股市的气象变更很快,一会儿好,一会儿坏!

上周五股市年夜跌4.4%,然而本周一却忽然年夜涨1.92%!有人说这是牛市的味道,由于就在2017年上证指数波动跨越1%的天数都屈指可数,到了此刻却习认为常!

股市的波动与新闻面有必定的关系,好比金融板块两年夜龙头中信证券和中国人保先后遭受券商赐与“卖出”评级,但在周末官方死力安抚市场。

又好比,2月份的通胀数据和货泉数据显明不预期,但在周末官方集体出头具名安抚市场,应当说提振了周一的市场。

我们来分辨解读下两项数据:

1、2019年2月份,全国居平易近花费价钱同比上涨1.5%,这是CPI持续4个月下跌了。

2019年2月份,全国产业出产者出厂价钱同比上涨0.1%,这是PPI持续8个月下跌了。

CPI和PPI双双下跌阐明了什么,阐明了今朝经济下行压力仍是比拟年夜,由于通胀率和经济增加往往成必定的成比,当GDP增加时往往会刺激物价在必定范畴内增加,反之,CPI走低也能表白基础面比拟疲软。

更为主要的是,2月份的CPI降落到1.5%,与今朝一年期存款基准利率一致,假如将来CPI再次走低,那么一年期存款基准利率将会跨越CPI,意味实在际利率(基准利率减往CPI)重回正时期,这给央行降息留出空间,对于资产价钱来说可能是利空下的利好吧。

2、货泉数据方面,2月份广义货泉M2同比是8.0%,预期8.4%,1月份是8.4%。2月份社会融资范围增量是7030亿元国民币,预期1.3万亿,1月份是4.64万亿

我们可以发明,2月份的货泉数据显明比1月份下滑了良多,货泉数据受两方面身分的影响,一是央行的货泉政策,假如货泉政策收紧,M2和社融增速不成能太高。别的一个是经济基础面,当经济繁华时,实体经济贷款增添,银行系统发明的货泉量也会增多,所以货泉数据也往往很亮丽。

对于2月份的数据,我们以为,单月来看变量太多,不克不及反应太多的题目,由于1月份是开年首月,因为银行贷款有额度限制,越到年尾额度越少,同时因为年底银行考察须要,到那时放贷量削减,这些贷款量全体累积起来放到2019年的1月成果很轻易呈现天量货泉。

所以客不雅地看的话,最好是把一月仲春,甚至一二三月的数据加起来和往年对照,究竟年头的3个月内还隔了个春节。

数据显示:本年一仲春累计新增贷款4.11万亿,比往年同期的3.74%,高了良多。同时本年一仲春社融增量是5.31万亿,明显高于往年同期的4.74万。

这阐明,本年一仲春的货泉数据仍是可以的,不外有一点,那就是我们固然不克不及盲目拿一仲春的数据进行对照,可是究竟降落的幅度太年夜,这是引起我们存眷的。将来我们要侧重看的是3月份的数据,这很要害,假如3月份的M2和社融都表示比拟好的话,那么2019年的经济增加压力将会减轻良多。

对于股市而言,固然从货泉的增量上看不支撑反弹,可是货泉的价上看却供给了股市上涨的空间,由于当前市场利率不降走低,且依据今朝监管层开释出的旌旗灯号,2019年还可能着手下降现实利率,说白了就是企业和居平易近现实感到获得的利率(贸易银行-企业、居平易近),对于机构投资者和小我投资者是有利的。

总之,今朝的股市固然受到惊吓,但将来上涨空间应当还有,只不外越来越少罢了,当股市涨得太快的时辰,往往会有一只看得见的手来压一压,由于阅历过了2015年那次牛熊转换,监管层加倍深知,涨得太快,实在累积的风险越年夜。

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义务编纂:

2月份宁波市区CPI同比上涨2.4%

原题目:2月份宁波市区CPI同比上涨2.4%

2月份,宁波市区居平易近花费价钱总程度(CPI)同比上涨2.4%,较上月扩展0.1个百分点。此中,食物价钱降落0.1%,非食物价钱上涨2.9%;花费品价钱上涨2.0%,办事价钱上涨2.9%。

2月份,宁波市区CPI环比上涨1.7%。此中,食物价钱上涨4.5%,非食物价钱上涨1.1%;花费品价钱上涨2.0%,办事价钱上涨1.3%。(见图1)

图1 宁波市区居平易近花费价钱涨跌幅走势图(%)

一、各类商品及办事价钱同比变更情形

食物烟酒价钱同比上涨1.5%。此中,禽肉、鲜菜、蛋类价钱分辨上涨6.0%、3.7%和3.7%;水产物、猪肉、鲜瓜果价钱分辨降落3.7%、3.0%和2.9%。

其他七年夜类价钱同比“六涨一降”。医疗保健、其他用品和办事、教导文化和娱乐、衣着、生涯用品及办事、栖身价钱分辨上涨7.9%、6.2%、4.6%、4.3%、4.0%和0.5%;交通和通讯价钱降落0.4%。(见图2)

图2 2月份居平易近花费价钱分类同比涨跌幅(%)

二、各类商品及办事价钱环比变更情形

2月份,食物烟酒价钱环比上涨2.8%。此中,鲜菜、鲜瓜果、水产物、畜肉类价钱分辨上涨16.2%、7.3%、3.3%和2.7%;鸡蛋、鲜奶价钱分辨降落2.1%和0.5%。

其他七年夜类价钱环比均为上涨。教导文化和娱乐、衣着、交通和通讯、生涯用品及办事、医疗保健、栖身、其他用品和办事、价钱分辨上涨2.9%、2.9%、1.3%、0.7%、0.4%、0.3%和0.2%。(见图3)

图3 2月份居平易近花费价钱分类环比涨跌幅(%)

1

义务编纂:

武汉2月份CPI同比上涨1.8%

原题目:武汉2月份CPI同比上涨1.8%

  长江日报融媒体3月12日讯12日,国度统计局武汉查询拜访队颁布数据显示,2月份,武汉市居平易近花费价钱总程度(CPI)同比上涨1.8%,涨幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点,环比上涨1.5 %。

从同比上看,八年夜类商品及办事价钱“七涨一降”。此中,教导文化、衣着、食物烟酒价钱分辨上涨3.1%、2.9%和2.6%,栖身、交通和通讯价钱分辨上涨1.7%和0.7%,生涯用品及办事、医疗保健价钱分辨上涨0.5%和0.1%,其他用品和办事价钱降落0.5%。从环比上看,八年夜类商品及办事价钱“五涨一平二降”,此中食物烟酒价钱领涨,环比涨幅为4.3%。

数据显示,2月份,鲜菜价钱上涨显明,价钱同比上涨11.0%,影响CPI上涨0.38个百分点。剖析以为,春节时代蔬菜市场进进发卖旺季,同时本年阴雨寡照气象连续时光较长,蔬菜出产受损,部门蔬菜产区减产减收,市场供求过于供,价钱随之上涨。

同时,教导文化和娱乐价钱同比上涨3.1%,拉动CPI同比上涨0.34个百分点。受上年秋季部门平易近办教导收费上调影响,2月份教导价钱同比上涨6.4%。此中,平易近办高级教导上涨15.4%,平易近办教导办事上涨7.0%。

2月份,衣着类价钱同比上涨2.9%,拉动CPI上涨0.24个百分点。上涨重要原因一是因为春节事后春装新品上市,价钱上涨;二是原资料和用工本钱上涨,经营场地房钱及制品订价进步。(记者张维纳 通信员杨晓东 袁星)

【编纂:金鑫】(作者:张维纳)

作者:张维纳 杨晓东 袁星

义务编纂:

【3月11日房生活快讯】十城二手房报告出炉 成交低迷回暖概率不大

原题目:【3月11日房生涯快讯】十城二手房陈述出炉 成交低迷回热概率不年夜

1.十城二手房陈述出炉 成交低迷回热概率不年夜

3月4日,易居研讨院宣布《10城二手房市场陈述》。该陈述显示,2019年2月,易居研讨院监测的10个城市二手房成交量为2.9万套,环比降落40.9%,同比降落7.1%。从环比降落四成来看,成交量重要是受春节节沐日身分影响;从同比来看,2月同比降幅较1月扩展了0.7个百分点,2019年前两个月二手房市场依旧低迷。

2.焦点城市房地产触底回热 非焦点城市泡沫回调

就2019年中国房地产的成长趋向,《中国消息周刊》专访了如是金融研讨院院长管清友。 对于2019年的房价,管清友以为,2019年房地产是有必定泡沫的,它最年夜的泡沫不在一二线城市,而是在三四线城市。在将来10年至20年,房地产的区域分化现象会越来越显明。今朝,房地产行业已经从总量的扩大成长到构造上的分化。2019年房价的趋向可以总结为:焦点城市触底回热,非焦点城市泡沫回调。

3.百强房企2月事迹环比跌幅超两成

2019年开年以来,固然全国有近20城呈现了分歧水平的政策微调,但受2月春节身分影响,房地产企业单月事迹仍然年夜面积下滑。克而瑞地产研讨中间颁布的统计数据显示,万科、保利、碧桂园、融创中国等百强房企2月单月的整体发卖范围较1月环比降落22.9%。此外,依照可比口径统计,2月百强发卖额同比下滑11%摆布。

4.国度统计局:2月CPI环比涨1.5% 栖身价钱同比涨2.4%

3月9日,国度统计局颁布2019年2月份CPI数据。从同比看,CPI上涨1.5%,涨幅比上月回落0.2个百分点。此中,食物价钱上涨0.7%,涨幅比上月回落1.2个百分点,影响CPI上涨约0.14个百分点;非食物价钱上涨1.7%,涨幅与上月雷同,影响CPI上涨约1.34个百分点。在非食物中,医疗保健、教导文化和娱乐、栖身价钱分辨上涨2.8%、2.4%和2.2%,合计影响CPI上涨约0.97个百分点。

起源:中国经济网、中房网

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